浦匯fxpro：油價恢復提振出口

we enter the last day of what has been a fairly volatile trading month. everyone expects august to be quite and it rarely ever is. for example, it was august 2011 when the vix previously spiked to current levels on the back of the us budgetary problems and ratings downgrade in the us. we have seen the dollar recover through the course of the week but this is more down to the sharp reversal seen against the single currency and also sterling. if you look at the price action on us interest rate futures, then the market’s opinion on a september rate increase has changed little, with the odds still looking to be around 20%. asina stocks are mostly firmer, with the shanghai composite looking to end the day in positive territory for the second consecutive day. the other relevant price action for currencies has been the oil price, with weaker than expected inventory data in the us allowing a sharp recovery in brent back to the 48 level. the russian rouble has reversed from the 70 level as a result on usdrub, with the norwegian krone and canadian dollar also performing well on the back of the oil price.

這個相當動盪的月份迎來了最後一天。大家都期盼八月份能夠安靜一些，但事實是卻喧囂不止。例如，2011 年 8 月 vix 波動指數曾飆升到很高水平，原因就是美國預算案出現問題以及美國信用降級。這一周之間美元已經逐漸恢復，不過原因更多是因為針對歐元和英鎊出現的突然逆轉。如果看看美國利率期貨的價格變動，我們就知道市場對於九月加息的看法沒有發生什么改變，加息的幾率仍然是 20% 左右。亞洲的股票也更加穩定，其中上海綜合指數可能會連續第二天停留在正值區域。另一個與貨幣相關的價格變動就是石油價格，美國石油儲量變化比預期要疲軟，導致布倫特原油突然出現恢復，到了 48 這個水平。俄國盧布也因此而逆轉，導致美元盧布從 70 開始恢復；挪威克朗合加元也因為油價原因而表現良好。

the data overnight in japan has shown a familiar picture, of continually low inflation, slightly better than expected retail sales and the jobless rate falling from 3.4% to 3.3%. other data today arrives in the form of revisions to uk gdp data and eurozone business and consumer confidence data at 09:00 gmt. we also see pce data in the us at 12:30 gmt, with final michigan confidence data at 14:00 gmt. overall, it’s going to be equities and the oil price that determine direction for currencies.

昨天日本的數據讓人感覺很熟悉，通脹走低，零售數據比預期稍好，而失業數據也從 3.4% 下降到了 3.3%。今天其他的數據還有格林尼治時間 9 點英國的 gdp 和歐元區商業和消費者信心數據。12 點 30 分有美國的 pce 數據，14 點還有最終密歇根消費者信心數據。總之，證券和油價將決定貨幣的走向。